External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry
Document Type
Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.
Medical Subject Headings
Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Asian People; Brain Ischemia (diagnosis, physiopathology); China; Female; Follow-Up Studies; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Prognosis; Registries; Risk Factors; Severity of Illness Index; Stroke (diagnosis, physiopathology); Time Factors; Treatment Outcome
Publication Date
5-1-2013
Publication Title
Stroke
E-ISSN
1524-4628
Volume
44
Issue
5
First Page
1443
Last Page
5
PubMed ID
23493731
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
10.1161/STROKEAHA.113.000993
Recommended Citation
Liu, Gaifen; Ntaios, George; Zheng, Huaguang; Wang, Yilong; Michel, Patrik; Wang, David Zheng; Fang, Jiming; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Liu, Liping; Dong, Kehui; Wang, Chunxue; Zhao, Xingquan; and Wang, Yongjun, "External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry" (2013). Neurology. 1785.
https://scholar.barrowneuro.org/neurology/1785